أنشئ حسابًا أو سجّل الدخول للانضمام إلى مجتمعك المهني.
I'm Agree With Mr. Yaqoub .
This is very difficult situation
I think you have to use one or all of the following:
1-Gut feeling or The Sixth Sense.
2- "probability is merely a measurement of our ignorance of a certain event".
If don't you have all the facts available to make a decision then stick with the base-rate data. We humans try to predict exactly the outcome of a decision which leads to neglect of relevant base rates.
Its basically measuring the risk isn't it? How much of a risk exists based on the information that you have and don't have? How does this risk impact the business and whats the probability. You will either get an accepted risk and make your decision.... or your decision will be to get more facts because you can't accept the risk.
You will first try to obtain the facts you need for taking your decision, and several techniques may be adopted to get the facts you need depending on the issue you are looking at and the stage you reached. If you can't get what you need, which is a very common situation, then your decision will be based on the facts you have in hands and possible analogues.
It is very complicated and risky situation if you have to make decision but dont have fact.
Observation is not backed by the reality but can be supplementary to the fact but carries a lot of risk to the decision making party.
هل تحتاج لمساعدة في كتابة سيرة ذاتية تحتوي على الكلمات الدلالية التي يبحث عنها أصحاب العمل؟