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Analysis of uncertainty:
Investment experts recommend conducting three types of analyzes of uncertainty: where the first procedure is the breakeven point where shown the scope to make sure the field of uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity, which includes reliance on several estimates under different conditions, rather than relying on a single estimate of the variable analysis. And Type III to deal with uncertainty is to analyze the possibilities where they can use all the possible values for each variable and which have non-negligible chance to happen.
1 / breakeven
The break-even point is the point where the income level with the expenses and thus is the sales level, which does not bring profit and no loss. It is known that the break-even point linked to the existence of fixed costs and variable costs and kilometers increased sales volume increased opportunities to make profits for the stability of fixed costs.
And can be expressed in a tie production capacity level of points to be used or the level of prices which should be selling products by, or the maximum of the costs, and therefore can determine the minimum to be achieved from the production or prices or the maximum cost to the project does not achieve any losses .
The breakeven analysis is an important and useful tool in the identification and description of relations between income and expenses, or between physical units of inputs and outputs. Would not expect that the projects in which rising fixed costs are high point of the tie-uncle if the fixed costs low.
2 / sensitivity analysis:
Sensitivity analysis shows how the net present value of the project changed as a result of a change in the value of the variables entered in the original accounts process. Variables such as the volume of sales or the sale of the unit price or the cost of the unit ..
And so on, the sales volume decline by half, such as may lead to a decline in net present value to a certain extent .. Such may lead to a decline in the net present value to a certain extent .. Therefore, since it was the net present value or net national value-added affected Bhz variable it is said the project is sensitive to the conditions of uncertainty .. and of course it requires a sensitivity analysis to determine degree and differs depending on the associated variables.
And the work of the sensitivity test is not required to enter all the variables, but enough work key variables that influenced the ruling a significant impact on the project plus or minus. And, of course, as the net present value or net value added nationalism was not affected, it does not become necessary sensitivity test in this case.
And sensitivity analysis takes the conditions of uncertainty into account by the user measurement index is calculated using the best estimates of the variables that will be in conditions to make sure and then re-calculated pessimistic estimates or normal estimates and calculations are made on this basis and it is essential to know the sensitivity of the project variables.
3 / probabilistic analysis:
Every investment decision Includes anticipate or predict the future, and the person who Atenb or expect something to be either very sure or not sure or in between. The degree of this risk can be estimated and measured in light of the "probability distribution" in all probability, coupled with the estimated number. In its simplest form, the probability distribution can be made up of a few of the possibilities. When estimating the profits, it is possible three estimates: optimistic estimate .. .. pessimistic estimate and assess the possibility of more as it was the economic conditions will prosper or shrink or remain on how it is put.
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